That week’s price is up by $49, or 14 per cent, from one month ago when it was US$358 mfbm.

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$535 mfbm, that week’s price is down by $129, or 24 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was US$1,048 mfbm, that week’s price is down by $642 or 61 per cent.

In the week ending June 23, 2023, the price of Southern Yellow Pine East Side 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$400 mfbm. This is down by $10 or two per cent compared to the previous week when it was US$410 mfbm.

That week’s price is down by $99, or 20 per cent, from one month ago when it was US$499 mfbm.

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$655 mfbm, that week’s price is down by $255, or 39 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was US$916 mfbm, that week’s price is down by $515 or 56 per cent.

That week’s price is up by +$33, or +9%, from one month ago when it was US$358 mfbm.

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$660 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$270, or -41%. Compared to two years ago when it was US$1,275 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$885 or -69%.

In the week ending June 16, 2023, the price of Southern Yellow Pine East Side 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$410 mfbm. This is down by -$15 or -4% compared to the previous week when it was US$425 mfbm.

That week’s price is down by -$89, or -18%, from one month ago when it was US$499 mfbm.

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$685 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$275, or -40%. Compared to two years ago when it was US$1,090 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$680 or -62%.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in May increased 12.2 per cent to a 763,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Demand for new homes is strengthening because of a lack of existing home inventory,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “And while builders continue to grapple with elevated construction costs, an encouraging sign is a big gain in home sales priced in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range. In May 2022, just 5,000 homes sold in this range and that total increased to 12,000 in May 2023.”

“The lack of resale homes available for sale, at just a three months’ supply, is supporting demand for newly built homes,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “New home inventory was 31 per cent of total inventory in May. Historically it is typically 10 per cent to 15 per cent. Further, the pace of resales is down 20 per cent from a year ago, while the rate of new home sales is up 20 per cent from a year ago.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 763,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in May was 428,000, down 2.9 per cent compared to a year ago. This is down to a more balanced 6.7 months’ supply at the current building pace, despite tight existing home supply conditions. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced.

The median new home sale price in May was $416,300, down 7.6 per cent compared to a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 0.8 per cent in the Northeast and 1.6 per cent in the South. New home sales are down 2.5 per cent in the Midwest and 20.7 per cent in the affordability-challenged West.

Q1 2023 showed the outcome of capitalizing on strong 2022 results and making smart investments to further impacts. The SLB and its funded programs continue to advance the industry’s goal of stimulating demand and expanding markets for softwood lumber.

Key highlights include:

• 439 MM BF of incremental demand generated, which has a carbon benefit of 1.1 MM metric tons of CO2 stored and avoided.
• The Mass Timber Conference, held March 27-29 in Portland, Ore., welcomed an estimated 3,000 design and construction professionals, and the predominant sentiment was enthusiasm and confidence in mass timber.
• The American Wood Council launched its second year of EPD data collection – an ongoing project to compile data on the production processes and environmental impacts of lumber products from source to end use.
• Think Wood secured the highest ever conversion rate of qualified leads to new projects, at 29 per cent. With 10 new projects converted in Q1 alone, the program is on pace to set a record number of new projects in 2023, an early indication that lead nurturing is continuously becoming more effective at priming practitioners to want to build projects with wood.
• WoodWorks directly influenced 123 projects and indirectly influenced 309 projects in Q1. Combined, the projects represent 18 MM SF of impacted wood construction, 180 MM BF of incremental lumber, 36 MM BF of incremental engineered wood products, and 108 MM SF of incremental wood structural panels.
• The Wood Institute saw 661 new accounts created and 1,080 courses completed, greatly exceeding Q1 2022. The SLB’s Education program also had 881 engagements with students and emerging professionals and 113 engagements with university faculty, continuing the focus of increasing exposure to wood design in more schools so future professionals are prepared to confidently implement wood systems in the built environment.

Learn more here.

Overall housing starts in May increased 21.7 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The May reading of 1.63 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 18.5 per cent to a 997,00 seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, this remains 6.6 per cent lower than a year ago. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 27.1 per cent to an annualized 634,000 pace.

“Mirroring rising builder sentiment, single-family permits and starts increased in May as builders boosted production to meet unmet demand,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “Despite elevated interest rates that make the cost of housing more expensive, the lack of existing home inventory in most markets is leading to increased demand for new construction.”

“The May housing starts data and our latest builder confidence survey both point to a bottom forming for single-family residential construction earlier this year,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “There have been some improvements to the supply-chain, although challenges persist for items like electrical transformers and lot availability. However, due to weakness at the start of the year, single-family housing starts are still down 24 per cent on a year-to-date basis.”

And while single-family starts are down 24 per cent year-to-date, single-family completions are down just 1.2 per cent as projects started at the end of last year finish. Of note, the May housing data shows that the number of single-family homes under construction is down 16 per cent compared to a year ago at 695,000, while the number of apartments under construction is up 17 per cent to 994,000 – the highest level since September 1974.

Dietz also noted that the May housing data signals a positive development on the inflation front. “Additional housing supply is good news for inflation data, because more inventory will help reduce shelter inflation, which is now a leading source of growth for the CPI,” he said.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 11.0 per cent lower in the Northeast, 15.0 per cent lower in the Midwest, 12.3 per cent lower in the South and 24.7 per cent lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 5.2 per cent to a 1.49 million unit annualized rate in May. Single-family permits increased 4.8 per cent to an 897,000 unit rate, but are down 25.5 per cent year-to-date. Multifamily permits increased 5.9 per cent to an annualized 594,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 21.1 per cent lower in the Northeast, 24.7 per cent lower in the Midwest, 16.5 per cent lower in the South and 24.1 per cent lower in the West.

According to Wood Resources International, the total log import volume to Finland and Sweden was just over eight million m3 last year compared to an average of almost 16 million m3 annually throughout the previous decade. In addition to the halt in log imports from Russia, there has also been a substantial decline in log exports from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to the Nordic countries. Most of the reduction has been in softwood logs, while hardwood log shipments have been relatively stable, fluctuating between three and four million m3 annually.

Softwood log trade in the Baltic Sea region has declined steadily for the past five years. In the 3Q/18, the total softwood log imports to Finland and Sweden reached a 15-year peak at 2.5 million m3 for the quarter and have since trended downward to just over one million m3 in the 1Q/23 (see chart). Over the past year, trade flows to Sweden from neighboring Finland and Norway declined the most, shipments from Sweden to Finland and from Latvia to Sweden showed slight increases.

The tighter supply of pulplogs and strong pulp markets has pushed log prices upward over the past year. In the 1Q/23, y-o-y import prices for softwood and hardwood pulplog to Finland jumped 93 per cent and 123 per cent, respectively. Prices for imported softwood and hardwood pulplogs to Sweden were up 14 per cent and 111 per cent, respectively, during the same period. Pulplog import prices to Finland and Sweden were substantially higher than domestic prices in the 1Q/23, as reported in the new WoodMarket Price digital platform from ResourceWise.

Wood Resource Quarterly has been digitized and is now available as an interactive online business intelligence platform, WoodMarket Prices (WMP). The pricing data service, established in 1988, has subscribers in over 30 countries. The WMP tracks prices for sawlog, pulpwood, lumber & pellets and reports on trade and wood market developments in most key regions worldwide. For more insights on the WMP platform, a unique and valuable tool for every organization that requires updates on the latest developments of global forest products markets, please go to Global Wood Prices.

That week’s price is up by +$3, or +1%, from one month ago when it was US$358 mfbm.

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$660 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$300, or -45%. Compared to two years ago when it was US$1,600 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$1,240 or -78.

In the week ending June 09, 2023, the price of Southern Yellow Pine East Side 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$425 mfbm. This is down by -$22 or -5% compared to the previous week when it was US$447 mfbm.

That week’s price is down by -$74, or -15%, from one month ago when it was US$499 mfbm.
Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$725 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$300, or -41%. Compared to two years ago when it was US$1,265 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$840 or -66%.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in June rose five points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the sixth straight month that builder confidence has increased and is the first time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint of 50 since July 2022.

“Builders are feeling cautiously optimistic about market conditions given low levels of existing home inventory and ongoing gradual improvements for supply chains,” said NAHB chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “However, access for builder and developer loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows.”

“A bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “This month marks the first time in a year that both the current and future sales components of the HMI have exceeded 60, as some buyers adjust to a new normal in terms of interest rates. The Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle is also good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of financing for builder and developer loans.”

Dietz further noted the Fed and Washington policymakers must factor into consideration how the state of home building is critical for the inflation outlook and the future of monetary policy.

“Shelter cost growth is now the leading source of inflation, and such costs can only be tamed by building more affordable, attainable housing – for-sale, for-rent, multifamily and single-family,” he said. “By addressing supply chain issues, the skilled labor shortage, and reducing or eliminating inefficient regulatory policies such as exclusionary zoning, policymakers can play an important and much-needed role in the fight against inflation.”

And in another sign of gradual optimism for the state of demand for single-family homes, the June HMI survey shows that overall, builders are gradually pulling back on sales incentives:

• 25 per cent of builders reduced home prices to bolster sales in June.  The share was 27 per cent in May and 30 per cent in April.  It has declined steadily since peaking at 36 per cent in November 2022.
• The average price reduction was seven per cent in June, below the eight per cent rate in December 2022.
• 56 per cent of builders offered incentives to buyers in June, slightly more than in May (54 per cent), but fewer than in December 2022 (62 per cent).

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three major HMI indices posted gains in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 61, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months increased six points to 62 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased four points to 37.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast edged up two points to 47, the Midwest increased four points to 43, the South moved three points higher to 55 and the West posted a five-point gain to 46.

HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at Housing Economics PLUS (formerly housingeconomics.com).

Director Allan W. Bennett make the announcement in a memorandum on May 31, with the change beginning June 1.

Bennett said the monthly updates will reduce stumpage lags from six months to an average of 3.5 months, and improve rate responsiveness to actual market conditions, which will make planning easier for smaller licensees with infrequent harvests.

Inventories in the field were reasonably robust, providing wholesalers, resellers, and other secondary suppliers with the opportunity to offer deals and grab some business from sawmills.

The alarming number of severe wildfires across many regions of Canada were closely watched, but had not yet had an effect on lumber prices. Industry watched closely for changes to the fire situation; particularly where it affected sawmills and transportation lines. Some railway and highway routes had already been closed.

In the week ending June 2, 2023, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$360 mfbm, which is up by $10, or three per cent, from the previous week when it was $350. That week’s price is up by $3, or one per cent, from one month ago when it was $358.

Players continued to wait with bated breath for increased urgency on the part of buyers, related to recent sawmill curtailment announcements and Western wildfires, but business just plodded along.

“Demand following Memorial Day remained muted and uncertain; many players thought such a weak market at this time of year was unprecedented.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Traders of  Western S-P-F commodities in the Western U.S. came back from their Memorial Day holiday weekend to a muted and uncertain market. Sawmills tried to dig in their heels and abstain from any more price corrections. However secondary suppliers with more aggressive and flexible strategies remained busy by comparison. Overall, supply-and-demand were in a rough equilibrium, with players noting that both were conspicuously low for late spring.

Western S-P-F  lumber producers in Western Canada navigated another discouraging week of sloppy pricing and sluggish sales activity. Those sawmill changes have certainly brought supply much closer in line with weak demand, but that was the extent of it. Prices of dimension lumber remained at or on either side of the previous week’s levels, with most changes skewing in the negative direction. Prices of four-inch were firmer than most in all grades, as mills had established their base levels on that bread-and-butter width and refused to go any lower.

“Eastern Canadian suppliers of lumber and studs reported another week of uninspired demand as buyers remained cautious. US customers were unnervingly quiet after returning from their Memorial Day holiday weekends. The bulk of business was done through the distribution network as secondaries filled LTL orders with more flexible pricing options and quicker shipping timelines. As one veteran trader noted, the emphasis was on turning over inventory rather than accumulating it. For their part, sawmills in Eastern Canada avoided taking counter-offers and tried to hold their prices firm amid tepid sales activity.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$700 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending June 2, 2023 was down by $340, or 49 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,600, that week’s price is down by $1,240, or 78 per cent.

Meanwhile, lumber sales volumes remained quite low despite improved U.S. home building data. Inventories in the field were robust, putting no urgency on customers to stock up on wood not needed immediately.

In the week ending May 26, 2023, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was again US$350 mfbm, which is down $10, or three per cent, from the previous week when it was $360. This is down by $1 from one month ago when it was $351.

The level of supply was evenly matched with demand, resulting in a relatively flat business week in terms of pricing and sales activity.

“Overall demand remained subdued as the market waited for the post-Memorial Day litmus test.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Traders of Western S-P-F in the U.S. reported a subdued tone to inquiry as holidaying Canadians returned to the market while players South of the border looked toward the Memorial Day long weekend. Players told their charges to take advantage of what they called an undervalued market, particularly in the case of 2×10 dimension. Sawmill order files were into early June and not much further. All eyes were on the following week and what traders hoped would be the unofficial start to the building season after Memorial Day.

The supply-demand equation in Western S-P-F  dimension appeared to balance out, with sawmills remaining firm on most of their asking prices. Prices of narrows lost a little more ground, but it was in the single- or low double-digit range. Sawmill curtailments and ongoing wildfires in Western Canada barely registered in terms of generating demand, but there was decidedly less material available overall than in previous weeks. Transportation had been smooth of late, with a competitive field of operators and stable fuel prices.

“Softening demand for green Douglas-fir lumber and studs continued apace. Buyers were extra-quiet as the Victoria Day holiday weekend ended in Canada while those in the U.S. geared up for their Memorial Day observations. Transactions were fickle, with customers nickeling-and-diming suppliers to the point of exhaustion, while keeping their sights trained on specific products only. Secondary suppliers with cheaper offerings and quicker shipment timelines continued to have the most success in this sluggish market.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$901 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending May 26, 2023 was down by $551, or 61 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,640, that week’s price is down by $1,290, or 79 per cent.

Whether it was concerns over macroeconomic conditions, questions about potentially low new home sales, or simply uncertainty in general; most players were staying on the sidelines with their lumber purchases. It seemed like everyone was waiting to see what everyone else would do.

Meanwhile, the wildfires in Alberta were somewhat reduced however still very serious. It turns out that about half those forest fires were caused by human activity, which is incredibly disappointing; specifically because those could have been avoided. At this time in mid-May those fires burned almost 900,000 hectares of Alberta forests.

In the week ending May 19, 2023, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$360 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week. That week’s price is up by $9, or two per cent, from one month ago when it was $351.

Buyers were still extremely hesitant to take long positions and instead kept to short-covering, leading to perpetually-low field inventories.

“Wildfires in Western Canada were top of mind this week while the broader North American solid wood commodities market continued to stumble slowly into mid-Spring.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Sales activity remained atypically lukewarm for the time of year according to Western S-P-F traders in the United States. Most players agreed that the upcoming Victoria Day and Memorial Day holiday weekends in Canada and the U.S. respectively will be the next crucial litmus test for the North American lumber market. For their part, U.S. sawmills established order files around two weeks out, but many regional facilities continued to show prompt availability on certain widths and trims. Steady inquiry and takeaway from industrial buyers kept low grade material moving.

Wildfires continued to be a main topic of conversation this week among Western Canadian S-P-F lumber traders. Many thousands more residents were forced from their homes as ongoing hot and dry conditions fuelled blazes across much of Western Canada, particularly in Alberta. Recent sawmill curtailment announcements added another looming question mark to the state of supply. Even though buyers remained circumspect and sales volumes were still lacklustre for the time of year, promising signs of increasing future demand were evident. Transportation appeared to be smooth for the time being, as forest fires haven’t closed any major highway routes as yet. There were pockets of slow-moving freight in Alberta due to the blazes, however.

“Traders of Southern Yellow Pine were beginning to sound like broken records. Prices of narrow dimension R/L items were almost identical to last week, while 2×12 remained the strongest seller and most scarce commodity. Traders tried to impress upon their customers that 2×8 and 2×10 were a solid value currently. Demand for SYP MSR was hopping as truss producers were busier with each passing week. Low grade showed some hustle as that category has been tight in supply lately.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,070 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending May 19, 2023 was down by $710, or 66 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,640, that week’s price is down by $1,280, or 78 per cent.

Thus what this means for lumber manufacturing, sales, and prices going into summer 2023 is also unknown.

In the week ending May 12, 2023, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was again US$360 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week. This is up by $9, or two per cent, from one month ago when it was $351.

Producers didn’t adjust their asking prices much as they waited to assess near- and long-term impacts on fibre supply of this catastrophic and early start to fire season.

“The largely-unchanged North American lumber market collectively held its breath in anticipation of knock-on effects from catastrophic wildfires in Western Canada.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

The Western S-P-F market was largely unchanged according to traders in the United States. Horrific wildfires in Western Canada briefly pushed futures up-limit, but cash didn’t follow. Then the run subsided. Pockets of inquiry were observed across the country, with special attention paid to studs as buyers began to secure coverage for June. Overall sales volumes remained subpar for the time of year however, particularly in bread-and-butter dimension. Buyers remained hesitant to build inventory, fearing another unpredictable year like the past three. Sawmills maintained late-May order files for the time being..

Suppliers of Western S-P-F in Canada all had forest fires on their minds as out of control blazes swept across large swathes of Alberta and some of British Columbia. The Alberta government declared a provincial state of emergency. Demand overall remained subdued, with buyers leaning on their well-established inventories and dipping into the distribution network when needed. Four-inch dimension was again the most obviously oversupplied commodity, while all other widths have also had trouble gaining traction lately.

“Prices of Eastern S-P-F continued to recede amid lukewarm demand according to traders. Eastern Canadian producers showed plentiful availability on weaker items such as narrow dimension and were open to reasonable counter offers from pokey customers. Studs were less-susceptible to this prevalent downward pressure by comparison. By midweek sales activity picked up and much of that accumulated material had been spoken for as buyers and suppliers found amenable numbers. Sawmills were able to strengthen their order files into late May on most items and grades.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,110 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending May 12, 2023, this price was down by $750, or 68 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,550, that week’s price is down by $1,190, or 77 per cent.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in April increased 4.1 per cent to a 683,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised reading in March, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the highest level since March 2022.

“A lack of existing inventory supported sales of newly-built, single-family homes in April,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “Even more encouraging, we are seeing sales growth in the more affordable price ranges of $200,000 to $400,000.”

“April saw an increase in new home sales as buyers sought new construction even as builders struggle to keep up with demand because of a shortage of distribution transformers and skilled construction workers,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “Sales for 2023 thus far are still down 9.7 per cent on a year-to-date basis due to elevated interest rates, and sales may weaken in the months ahead given the recent rise in interest rates.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the April reading of 683,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory increased 0.2 per cent in April and remained elevated at a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced. However, the lack of resale, existing home inventory means that overall inventory for the single-family market remains tight.

The median new home sale price fell in April to $420,800 and was down 8 per cent compared to a year ago. The report showed growth in the lower price ranges, with 9,000 sales in the $200,000-$299,999 price range in April 2023, compared to just 4,000 sales a year prior. The $300,000-$399,999 price bracket grew by 14,000 sales in that same time frame.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all regions, down 19.2 per cent in the Northeast, 9.8 per cent in the Midwest, 0.7 per cent in the South and 27.5 per cent in the West.

In response to the weak market conditions, another producer announced a round of curtailments at manufacturing facilities, again in British Columbia. This to prevent lumber commodity prices from falling even further, as they are currently dangerously at or below cost-of-production.

In the week ending May 05, 2023, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$360 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week. That week’s price is up by $9, or two per cent, from one month ago when it was $351.

Substantial discounts for material beyond a two-week timeline were not considered as producers waited to see if they could firm up their numbers over the course of May.

“The overall pace of business remained lacklustre considering the time of year, yet traders remained optimistic about more sales to come.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Real springtime sales activity remained elusive again according to Western S-P-F traders in the United States. There was apparently still too much supply chasing too little demand. Some players contrastingly reported sneaky-good business in their respective regions, with a fair bit of day-to-day truck orders coming in. While demand levels seemed boring, by day’s end the number of overall deals stacked up to decent numbers. A prevailing sentiment was that 2×4 #2&Btr R/L was undervalued no matter the source. Meanwhile, #3/Utility 2×4 was much more difficult to buy and easier to sell. Traders saw studs as the most liquid items. Sawmill order files were in the realm of two weeks.

Caution continued to reign in the Western S-P-F lumber market to hear Canadian suppliers tell it. Players were optimistic overall, but the pace of business remained well below typical springtime levels. Buyers still subsisted on hand-to-mouth deals. Even as they kept to short-covering, customers reported increased jobsite activity and retail traffic. Western Canadian sawmills adjusted their asking prices on bread-and-butter items within a narrow range, trying to find tradable levels that stuck.  Transportation continued to flow smoothly and on time for the most part, further reducing urgency on the part of buyers.

“Sellers of green Douglas-fir lumber and studs in the United States reported another grind of a week. Inquiry was out there, but securing actual orders was a challenge according to suppliers. Wholesalers and distributers were busier than sawmills as buyers continued to favour highly-specified mixes and LTL orders that could be shipped in 10 days or less. Meanwhile, producers worked to build up their meagre log decks as soggy forestland dried out, anticipating improved demand in the back half of May. Sawmill order files were largely into the second or third week of May.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,060 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending May 05, 2023 was down by $700, or 66 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,210, that week’s price is down by $850, or 70 per cent.

In the week ending April 28, 2023, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$360 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week. This is down by $13, or 3.0 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Good takeaway of low-grade commodities persisted as industrial customers remained active. A growing contingent of suppliers felt the market was undervalued and poised to go on a run.

“The interminable wait for spring activity to arrive persisted this week. Buyers remained cautious while suppliers chomped at the bit.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Demand for Western S-P-F  in the United States was so-so, to hear traders tell it. Business was heavily region- and product-dependent, with bread-and-butter dimension and stud items garnering the lion’s share of demand. Experienced players wondered whether sawmills might consider cutting the odd shift to pull material out of what many referred to as an oversupplied market. Downstream buyers were content with replenishing through the distribution network and still showed no urgency to cover more than immediate needs.

According to Canadian purveyors, the Western S-P-F  market continued to struggle to reach typical spring price levels. Prices stabilized further, with nearly all dimension commodities remaining at or on either side of the previous week’s numbers. Notable exceptions were found in straight length 2x10s, several of which came back down to earth in triple-digit tumbles. Secondary suppliers noted that the market seemed oversupplied still, even if availability was largely hit-and-miss depending on the source and item. Spring had sprung for the most part, but weather continued to be an issue in some key consuming regions. Buyers were fond of leaning on LTL and mixed load business through the distribution network when they needed coverage.

“Sales of Eastern S-P-F started the week on shaky ground before finding firmer footing. Demand was fair to middling, with most sales activity going to secondary suppliers who offered flexible tallies and quick shipment. One veteran trader noted that every deal was a unique challenge as orders did not come easy. While prices of studs and low grade firmed up in both the Great Lakes and Toronto markets, R/L #2&Btr dimension was comparatively listless. A better tone emerged around midweek when buyers sensed a change in the wind and started to secure more coverage. Sawmill order files were no further than two weeks out.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,060 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending April 28, 2023, this price was down by $700, or 66 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,330, that week’s price is down by $970, or 73 per cent.

For builders this is a problem, especially for brand-new projects which require concrete foundations to be poured. As the entire industry waits for normal balmy temperatures to consistently arrive, the demand for lumber and wooden building materials is soft indeed. This, of course, means prices this year have not yet started their annual climb.

In the week ending April 21, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$360 mfbm, which is up by $10, or three per cent, from the previous week when it was $350. That week’s price is down by $13, or three per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Buyers continued to avoid taking anything resembling a long position, preferring to subsist on hand-to-mouth deals instead.

“Encouraging signs came from various pockets of the North American solid wood commodities market, but sales activity overall continued to fall short of typical spring levels.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Buyers of Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the United States maintained their cautious approach this week. Sales volumes were better into certain regions, but overall demand continued to fall short of typical spring levels. Sales of low-grade lumber remained strong, while #2&Btr 2×4 R/L emerged as the most sought-after width as buyers pursued coverage for upcoming construction projects. WSPF stud trims experienced steady demand throughout the week. Sawmills found success with higher numbers on narrows, while wides were weak by comparison. Order files stretched into the week of May 8th.

The Western S-P-F dimension market settled into a more stable pattern over the course of this week. Canadian producers adjusted their asking prices again, with most items remaining at or on either side of last week’s levels. Four-inch R/L experienced strong inquiry and takeaway the whole week according to both primary and secondary suppliers. Meanwhile, wides were apparently a struggle by contrast.

“Canadian suppliers of Western S-P-F studs reported improved activity as buyers on both sides of the border were busier than in recent weeks. Those from the U.S. were decidedly livelier, while the Canadian market was still slowly coming out of hibernation. Producers pushed their asking prices up on all trims aside from overabundant 2×6-8’s. The scarcest and strongest in-demand trim was again 2×6-9’. Stud mills extended their order files into the first half of May.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$815 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending April 21, was down by $270, or 33 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,090, that week’s price is down by $545, or 50 per cent.

In the week ending April 14, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$350 mfbm, which is up by $15 or 4.0 per cent, from the previous week when it was US$335 mfbm. This is down by $23, or 6.0 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Sales of panels continued to flounder compared to lumber and studs, though Oriented Strand Board seemed to gain some traction. Meanwhile, real spring construction and resultant demand for building materials remained elusive.

“Many buyers considered Easter weekend the latest important litmus test, and after seeing steady numbers from the sawmills, decided to secure more coverage.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Sales across the entire North American solid wood commodities market continued to sputter to life, and US Western S-P-F was no exception. Availability appeared abundant as buyers stuck to their hand-to-mouth purchases, but mounting reports of tightening supply at the sawmill level belied the notion of a vastly oversupplied market. Retailers were busier than in recent weeks, noting that the counteroffers accepted by mills have recently slimmed down to $5 to $10 at most. The influx of European spruce seemed to be waning lately, but there was still plenty available at lower price points than domestic wood. Producers maintained two- to three-week order files.

Western S-P-F lumber prices firmed up for the most part as players returned to their desks after the Easter holiday long weekend. While Monday was quiet, sales gained momentum from Tuesday-on. Players continued to report a broad perception of oversupply from the view of buyers, however. While sales volumes showed a promising direction, demand had yet to equalize with supply and reach a pace typically associated with the spring season. Secondary suppliers continued to field good takeaway from buyers looking for last-minute coverage. Two-week order files at sawmills were the norm.

“Buyers of Kiln-Dried Douglas-fir commodities continued to play it cautious, sticking to short-term coverage of their most immediate inventory-needs. Apparently, some sawmills were having trouble restocking on fibre as log sellers boosted their asking prices, and kept shopping around until they found someone willing to go higher on purchase price. For their part, producers upped their asking prices on narrows a jot and held the line on less-popular wides for the time being. At sawmills, dimension lead times were still into the week of April 24th.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,096 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending April 14, 2023 this price was down by $746, or 68 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,130, that week’s price is down by $780, or 69 per cent.

Another bought of harsh winter weather, especially in eastern Canada, kept home building activity low. Several regions across the continent did experience actual spring, thus demand for wood did start increasing. As the calendar moves closer to May, the usual spring building season will truly arrive.

In the week ending April 7, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$335 mfbm, which is down by $21, or 6.0 per cent, from the previous week when it was $356. That week’s price is down by $38, or 10 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Excess overall supply of Southern Yellow Pine and European wood continued to give buyers myriad options to cover their positions.

“Solid wood commodity traders reported a so-so pace to sales activity in virtually every category during the holiday-shortened week.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Sales of Western S-P-F commodities started the week on a so-so note and dwindled slowly from there. According to traders in the U.S., buyers were content with their inventories and took the opportunity of a holiday-shortened week to retreat to the sidelines. Producers maintained late-April order files and kept their asking prices at or slightly on either side of the previous week’s levels. Another spate of cold weather enveloped much of the U.S. Midwest, dampening demand from that region.  Players noted that sellers of European wood were changing their strategies, with that source of supply anticipated to dry up.

Suppliers of Western S-P-F lumber in Western Canada reported pokey demand. Buyers stayed cautious and were only too happy to play it quiet in advance of the Easter holiday weekend. Modest business persisted through the distribution network, but those sales volumes remained subpar by any standard. Buyers continued to avoid any speculative purchasing. For their part, producers were increasingly disinterested in counter-offers even as they showed plentiful availability. While the outlook was cold and wet in the West over the holiday weekend, players looked toward warmer weather in the long-term forecast.

“Southern Yellow Pine trading slowed down as the Easter holiday approached and buyers took the opportunity to step back and digest previously-ordered material. Producers remained confident, keeping their numbers firm or slightly above last week’s levels and extending order files into late-April on most items. Industrial customers stayed more active than other buyers, and studs were again a steady seller.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,096 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending April 7, was down by $761, or 21 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,110, that week’s price is down by $565, or 51 per cent.

Overall housing starts in March decreased 0.8 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The March reading of 1.42 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.7 per cent to an 861,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, this remains 27.7 per cent lower than a year ago. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 5.9 per cent to an annualized 559,000 pace.

“With builder sentiment climbing for four consecutive months and single-family starts continuing to move gradually higher from low levels since the beginning of the year, this indicates that a turning point for single-family construction will occur later this year after declines in 2022,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “However, builders are still challenged by ongoing supply-chain issues and a skilled labor shortage.”

“We expect choppiness for single-family construction in the months ahead, with the 2023 data posting significant year-over-year weakness before improving on a sustained basis,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “The multifamily market softened in March, and we anticipate ongoing declines for apartment construction in the months ahead due to tighter lending conditions in the commercial real estate sector.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 8.3 per cent lower in the Northeast, 34.5 per cent lower in the Midwest, 11.5 per cent lower in the South and 28.2 per cent lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 8.8 per cent to a 1.41 million unit annualized rate in March. Single-family permits increased 4.1 per cent to an 818,000 unit rate, but are down 29.7 per cent compared to a year ago. Multifamily permits decreased 22.1 per cent to an annualized 595,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 24.5 per cent lower in the Northeast, 25.3 per cent lower in the Midwest, 15.7 per cent lower in the South and 28.1 per cent lower in the West.

The number of single-family homes under construction in March was 716,000, the 10th monthly decline. In March, builders completed 15,000 more homes than began construction, resulting in a decline for the construction pipeline.

There are now 958,000 apartments under construction, which is the highest level since the fall of 1973.

In U.S. dollar terms, global wood fibre prices have generally increased less than in local currencies the past year because of the strengthening dollar. Pulp mills have grappled with some of the highest wood costs in over 10 years. WRI’s two global wood fibre price indices have trended upward for 2.5 years and were at eight-year highs in the 4Q/22. The Global Hardwood Fiber Price Index (HFPI) has increased the most over the past few years, from US$78.79/bdmt in the 3Q/20 to US$100.07/bdmt in the 4Q/22, a 27% increase. The Global Softwood Fiber Price Index (SFPI) rose during the same period, about 13 per cent, from $93.13/bdmt to reach US$104.79/bdmt in the 4Q/22.

Wood fibre costs are, by far, the highest cost component when manufacturing wood pulp. In the 4Q/22, wood costs accounted for almost 60 per cent of the cash cost for pulp produced worldwide, according to FisherSolve from ResourceWise. The other cost shares were energy (17%), chemicals (14%), materials (5%), and labour (5%). There is a significant variation in wood cost percentages depending on the country, ranging between 45-75 per cent. The Nordic countries and Germany are at the low end of the range for wood costs, with energy accounting for a relatively high percentage. The highest wood cost shares are typically in Asia, including China and Japan, with the energy and chemicals shares often below 10 per cent of total cash costs.

Wood Resource Quarterly has been digitized and is now available as an interactive online business intelligence platform, WoodMarket Prices (WMP). The pricing data service, established in 1988, has subscribers in over 30 countries. The WMP tracks prices for sawlog, pulpwood, lumber & pellets and reports on trade and wood market developments in most key regions worldwide. For more insights on the WMP platform, a unique and valuable tool for every organization that requires updates on the latest developments of global forest products markets, go to Global Wood Prices.

In the week ending March 31, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$356 mfbm, which is down by $24 or 6.0 per cent, from the previous week when it was US$380 mfbm. This is down by $17, or 5.0 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

U.S. sawmills with extended production schedules held their prices flat, while those in weaker positions made it known they were open to all but the most egregious counteroffers.

“Despite pockets of promising sales in both lumber and panels this week, the tone remained frustrating and uninspired.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Sales volumes of Western S-P-F in the U.S. hung in there, but suppliers were frustrated with the lack of improvement as March came to a close. The vaunted spring building rush was held back by enduring cold weather and a benighted economic outlook. Faltering lumber futures also caused to buyers to hesitate with their purchase decisions. Steady demand for 2×4 and 2×6 contrasted starkly with weak inquiry into wides.

While customers stuck to short-covering, Western Canadian lumber suppliers waited with bated breath for the dam to burst on spring buying. Inquiry and takeaway of 2×4 and 2×6 R/L #2&Btr was better than of wides, which experienced weaker demand and some significant downward price pressure. Wholesalers and distributers reported steady sales volumes thanks to growing demand from several key construction markets where spring weather has arrived. Sawmill order files were into the week of April 10th.

“Eastern Canadian lumber suppliers were busy as a revolving door of buyers kept orders flowing. That steady downstream activity boosted the confidence of wholesalers and distributers, who consistently replenished their inventories with a variety of items. For their part, producers kept asking prices flat or slightly down from the previous week’s levels. The ample availability shown by both primary and secondary suppliers early in the week dried up noticeably by Wednesday as buyers appeared to lose the upper hand of shopping around at their leisure. Thanks to that strong takeaway in the early going, sawmill order files now stretched into the second or third week of April.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,410 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 31, this price was down by $1,054, or 75 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by $684, or 66 per cent.

In the week ending March 24, 2023, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$380 mfbm, which is up by +$16, or +4%, from the previous week when it was $364, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter. That week’s price is down by -$76, or -17%, from one month ago when it was $456.

Traders pointed out that many customers were absent from the market enjoying spring break with their kids, and voiced their hope for a boost in business when school resumes.

“Depending on species, commodity, and region, varying levels of activity made the North American lumber market a hit-and-miss affair.” – Madison’s Lumber Reporter

As spring weather continued to percolate through some key consuming regions, Western S-P-F producers in the United States were less flexible with their asking prices. Improved overall demand resulted in mid-April order files, with big box customers apparently among the more prominent buyers lately. Players reported a wave of Euro SPF arriving to the continent, which pushed many suppliers to discount deeper than they would have liked to keep material flowing. Sawmill order files were stretching into mid-April on most items.

Canadian purveyors of Western S-P-F lumber described a middling market as prices and sales activity continued to stabilize. Discounted offerings could be found if buyers were persistent, but several key items were booking increased sales, thus prices appeared to show a broader trend of firming up. Demand for four- and six-inch #2&Btr R/L dimension led the way, with the price gap between the two a common topic of conversation.

“In mid-March prices of most species of stud lumber took another step forward, and Western S-P-F was no exception. Growing demand was evident all week. Producers rode the wave and boosted their asking prices on four-inch trims, while all other studs were firm at the previous week’s levels. Stud mill order files slowly marched forward, now into the weeks of April 10th or 17th. Buyers continued to focus on short-term coverage, but there were noticeably more transactions overall. Players reported large gaps in truck freight rates depending on origin and destination pairings. Drivers who had to run longer empty kilometres charged a premium for those trips.” – Madison’s Lumber Reporter 

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,400 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 24, 2023 was down by -$1,020, or -73%. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by -$660, or -63%.

The details of the transaction are not being disclosed.

UPM suspended its business activities in Russia, including deliveries, wood procurement and the Chudovo plywood mill, in March last year, citing “Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

The company said then they employed 800 people in Russia, most of whom worked at the Chudovo plywood mill.

UPM noted its assets in Russia in 2021 were less than one per cent of the group total, and approximately two per cent of their total sales in 2021 were to Russia and Ukraine.  Less than 10 per cent of UPM’s wood sourcing to Finland originated from Russia in 2021, the company said.

Sawmills claimed to have extended order files out to two weeks or so, but resellers suspected this might be an exaggeration. However, the ability of manufacturers to dismiss counter-offers suggested their order files would stretch out that far soon enough. Transportation delays continued as harsh weather remained for another week.

In the week ending March 17, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$364 mfbm, which is down by $1 or zero per cent, from the previous week when it was US$365 mfbm. This is down by $91, or 20 per cent, from one month ago when it was $456.

Demand for standard dimension lumber improved a little, while sales of panels continued to languish by comparison.

“The effects of winter weather still abounded, especially in production regions where frigid temperatures persistently hampered timber harvesting and log transportation.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Amid a mushy market, Western S-P-F traders in the U.S. saw better sales volumes in mid-March. Producers showed a little more confidence as they kept asking prices at or on either side of the previous week’s levels. Despite the banking tumult, buyers actively sought near-term coverage to fill holes in their inventories. Players voiced their concerns that government intervention in the financial system would negatively affect investment and growth in the housing sector. Having done enough business to extend order files into the first week of April, producers were decreasingly interested in accepting counter-offers.

Western S-P-F lumber prices in Western Canada stabilized as suppliers reported a more balanced supply-demand equation. Sales of low grade continued to outperform standard and high grade. Industrial customers stayed more active than those in the #2&Btr game. While the spring building boost has yet to materialize, suppliers were more confident in its imminence due to long-term forecasts showing warmer weather patterns in many key areas.

Demand for Eastern S-P-F panel market was much the same as the previous week, with the added disincentive of tumbling plywood prices. Buyers smelled blood and were happy to wait and see how much further this correction might go. Oriented Strand Board prices were flat amid a tale of two markets; where demand out of Eastern Canada remained snowed under for the time being while several key markets south of the border were lumbering to life. Inventory holders in Ontario and Quebec hoped for warmer weather to melt away the snow piles eating up their yard space. Suppliers of OSB and plywood in Western Canada didn’t have much new to report. Wholesalers and distributers in Lower Mainland British Columbia were able to buy OSB cheaper than print levels for the first time in several weeks. Prices of plywood meanwhile stumbled around five points as producers approached their alleged early-April order files and tried to drum up some interest. Late shipments were commonly reported.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,330 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 17, this price was down by $966, or 73 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by $676, or 65 per cent.

Lumber manufacturers and resellers alike could only wait for better weather to come on, bringing with it a return to the hammers-and-nailing of renewed construction activity for this year. The good news is that there has been no impediment to timber harvesting, thus log supplies at sawmills across Canada and the U.S. are good; in expectation of increasing demand once the weather actually does improve.

In the week ending March 10, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$365 mfbm, which is down by $35, or nine per cent, from the previous week when it was $400. That week’s price is down by $91, or 20 per cent, from one month ago when it was $456.

Demand for North American lumber meandered aimlessly as ongoing winter weather stalled spring buying once again.

“Ongoing winter weather in many key markets kept demand to a minimum, while commodity prices were messy and indeterminate.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Producers of Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the United States described mid-March as a sloppy week for inquiry and sales. Asking prices were adjusted on several bread-and-butter items. Secondary suppliers engaged in a race to the bottom as they fiercely competed for limited business. Buyers remained circumspect in their dealings, typically sticking to secondary suppliers where they could haggle more freely on price point. Sawmill order files were between two- and three-weeks out, with a few items showing up for prompt delivery from some sources.

Western S-P-F lumber sales in Canada meandered aimlessly as buyers sat firmly on the sidelines. Business continued to be confined to small-volume, just-in-time purchases. The distribution network took care of most of that volume, furnishing customers with highly-mixed truckloads of specific tallies. Transportation has been a slower affair of late, with players worrying that transit times will worsen significantly when spring buying takes off.

“Demand for Western S-P-F studs was hit-and-miss, though producers noted that sales were stronger than for dimension. Buyers maintained their cautious approach, feeling little pressure to cover more than immediate needs. When they did step in to make purchases, the distribution network had sufficient availability at more flexible price points, and with faster arrival times, than did producers. Sawmills hoped prices had reached a bottom, as winter weather persisted in many important consuming regions.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,400 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 10, was down by $1,035, or 74 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by $675, or 65 per cent.

In the week ending March 3, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$400 mfbm, which is down by $17 or four per cent, from the previous week when it was US$417 mfbm. This is down by $56, or 12 per cent, from one month ago when it was $456.

Secondary suppliers did replenish some of their stock, while downstream buyers jumped in to cover only their short-term needs with small volume purchases.

“Slow demand for panels was a carbon copy of the previous week, while a two-tiered market developed in lumber and studs’ sales.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Following the previous week’s deep price cuts at the sawmill level, sales of Western S-P-F in the U.S. perked up a bit at the beginning of March. Overall, the market felt healthier according to players, but it wasn’t gangbusters yet. Better takeaway allowed mills to push their order files into the second or third week of March, with production of nine-foot studs the furthest out due to ongoing tight supply. Customers remained reluctant to begin spring buying for many reasons; chief among them sustained winter weather and the troubling economic outlook.

Traders of Western S-P-F lumber in Western Canada reported an uneven pace to business. Some customers found their preferred numbers and secured short-term coverage, while others continued to hold off from buying to see if there will be more downside to pricing. Double-digit price corrections swept across nearly every dimension item, with High- and Low-Grade categories hit the hardest. Ongoing winter weather in many regions helped buyers keep to the sidelines. Availability among both primary and secondary suppliers was ample again, while sawmill order files were anywhere from prompt to two weeks out.

Eastern S-P-F trading was decent at the start of March, with primary and secondary suppliers reporting good takeaway amid a more optimistic tone. That trend was reinforced as the week wore on, with sawmills stabilizing their numbers noticeably from the weaker levels observed on Monday. Sales volumes grew as a midweek push came from buyers who felt a bit of pressure to secure short-term coverage. Business tapered off to a slow burn later in the week according to suppliers. Producers were able to nudge their order files out to mid- or late-March, while secondaries competed with each other for limited orders then ended up selling below replacement levels.

“Buyers were squarely focussed on small volumes of the most readily-available and cheapest wood possible.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,330 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 3, this price was down by -$930, or 70 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by $640, or 62 per cent.

Noting the recent waffling of price levels, wary customers sat on their hands and delayed buying anything more than absolutely necessary. This in hopes that prices might fall further. For their part, producers and wholesalers kept their minds on the looming spring building season. There remain many unknowns to play out as this year rolls on. If the past three years have demonstrated anything, it’s that the previous normal annual cycle of home building, thus lumber price trends, have not been as apparent as they were historically.

In the week ending February 24, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$417 mfbm, which is down by $53, or 11 per cent, from the previous week when it was $470. That week’s price is up by $45, or 12 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Construction markets consuming only dribs and drabs of framing components, thus downstream business remained subdued.

“North American lumber demand was restrained overall, with prices of many key commodity prices tumbling amid persistently weak demand.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Suppliers of Western S-P-F commodities in the United States reported a restrained tone among buyers. Negativity on the futures board gave customers further pause, relegating the bulk of business to the distribution network. Even secondary suppliers, however, were underworked; as the only sales they saw came in highly mixed truckloads from cautious buyers looking to fill the odd hole in their inventories. Warehousing and storage rates have risen dramatically compared to pre-COVID levels, causing wholesalers and distributers to bemoan the heightened cost of carrying wood. Mid-March sawmill order files were widely reported.

A prevalent downward trend emerged in Western S-P-F trading. Sawmills made significant adjustments to their asking prices, particularly on standard- and high-grade dimension items. Buyers continued to sit on the sidelines, waiting for wood already ordered to arrive or working through their own ample inventories. Conifex announced plans to temporarily curtail operations at its Mackenzie, B.C., sawmill. Unsustainable inventory levels caused by rail transportation issues in Interior B.C. apparently necessitated the move, which will reduce that mill’s production capacity by an estimated 7 million board feet.

“Demand for Western S-P-F studs went quiet according to suppliers in Western Canada. Buyers continued to work through purchases made in mid- or late-January. Downstream takeaway was nearly nil as winter weather returned to much of the North American continent. Sawmills maintained order files around three weeks out. Asking prices were lowered on bread-and-butter trims, with little to no effect on sales activity. What meagre business transpired was confined almost entirely to LTL transactions at the secondary level.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,330 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending February 24, was down by $913, or 69 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $1,040, that week’s price is down by $623, or 60 per cent.

In the week ending February 17, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$470 mfbm, which is down by $6 or one per cent, from the previous week when it was US$476 mfbm. This is up by $98, or 26 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

The distribution network got a little frantic in an effort to shed excess material, apparently selling well-below replacement levels to clean up their inventories.

“While lumber mills maintained robust order files for the most part, the solid wood commodities market experienced no significant changes in either pricing or demand.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

In mid-February, demand for Western S-P-F commodities was lacklustre. Buyers retreated to the sidelines, having covered their most pressing needs during late-January and early-February. Even with large volumes of overall supply taken out of the equation by sweeping closures and curtailments among WSPF producers, overbought position of many customers showed just how quickly winter inventory needs can still be met or exceeded. Meanwhile, sawmill order files were no further out than the first week of March.

Players reported a promising start to Western S-P-F trading, following an uncertain end to the previous week. Buyers were patient with their purchases, calling sawmills and secondaries multiple times to find their preferred mixes and tallies. They were often disappointed; as producers’ offer lists were thin and wholesalers didn’t have much better selections. Field inventory levels were apparently satisfactory however, evidenced by diminishing customer activity as the week wore on. Producers leaned on order files into early-March.

In contrast to the flatness in the rest of the Hemlock/Fir complex, prices of green Douglas-fir commodities took a tumble. At least, that was the case in dimension, while studs were unchanged from the previous week’s levels. Buyers were quiet again, leading producers to bring some numbers closer in line with other Hem/Fir categories. Those price corrections did little to cajole customers however, with sales activity only worsening as the weekend approached. Sawmill order files were into the week of March 6th.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,230 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending February 17, this price was down by $760, or 62 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $992, that week’s price is down by $522, or 53 per cent.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 670,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory declined in January but remained elevated at a 7.9 months’ supply. A measure near a 6 months’ supply is considered balanced.

A year ago, there were just 34,000 completed, ready to occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By January 2023, that number increased 115 per cent to 73,000, reflecting flagging demand and more standing inventory due to lower sales. Completed, ready to occupy inventory however remains just 16.7 per cent of total inventory and homes under construction accounts for 62.6 per cent of the inventory. Homes that have not started construction when the sales contract is signed accounts for 20.6 per cent of new homes sold in January.

The median new home sale price declined for the third straight month after peaking in October at $496,800. In January the median price was $427,500, down 8.2 per cent from December. The share of entry-level homes priced below $300,000 has been steadily falling in recent years. Only 14 per cent of the homes were priced in this entry-level affordable range while 33 per cent of the homes were priced above $500,000. The majority of homes (53 per cent) were priced between $300,000-$500,000.

Regionally, on a monthly basis, new home sales fell in three regions, down 19.4% in the Northeast, 6.9 per cent in the Midwest, and 7.3 per cent in the West. New home sales rose 17.1 per cent in the South.

Learn more: NAHB

In the week ending February 10, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$476 mfbm, which is up by $16 or 3.0 per cent, from the previous week when it was US$360 mfbm. This is up by $104, or 28 per cent, from one month ago when it was $373.

Supply levels remained tight due to the significant reduction in production volume caused by the aforementioned mill changes.

“Prices of panels appeared to find a bottom, while the recent climb in lumber and stud prices tapered off to stable-but-firm levels.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

The Western S-P-F market in the United States experienced balance after a period of solid business activity generated by Western producer curtailment and closure announcements. Sawmill order files extended into late-February or early-March, reflecting producers’ cautiously optimistic confidence. On the other hand, buyers took a step back after shoring up their inventories in January, waiting for the market to show a clear direction.

Demand for Western S-P-F in Canada slowed down to a more stable pace with commodity prices settling at or slightly above the previous week’s levels. In reaction to the myriad curtailment and closure announcements over the past five weeks, most buyers had already extended their coverage, choosing to digest their positions for the time being. Availability of prompt supply was limited, even as the odd load popped up before quickly getting snatched. Two- to four-week order files were most common as producers solidified their positions for the balance of February.

“The U.S. Northeast witnessed unseasonable weather conditions, leading Eastern wholesalers to speculate that the spring season may not be as favourable as anticipated. This resulted in a decline in sales and a reluctance among buyers to build up their inventory for the upcoming building season. Additionally, inventory holders were cautious about paying more for carloads, given the lengthy transportation time of approximately six weeks.” — Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$1,220 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending February 10, 2023 this price was down by $744, or 61 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was $960, that week’s price is down by $484, or 50 per cent.

Overall housing starts decreased 4.5 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The January reading of 1.31 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 4.3 per cent to an 841,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 4.9 per cent to an annualized 468,000 pace.

“Housing construction weakened in January as ongoing affordability conditions fueled by high mortgage rates and building material costs challenged the market,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “And while a recent two-month upturn in builder sentiment indicates a turning point for single-family construction could take hold in the months ahead, policymakers need to fix the supply chain for building materials to ensure builders can add the additional inventory the housing market desperately needs.”

“As completions continue to outpace construction starts, this marks the eighth straight monthly decline for the number of single-family homes under construction, which has fallen to 752,000,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice-president for forecasting and analysis. “Meanwhile, the number of apartments under construction stands at the highest level since November 1973, which means a slowdown for apartment starts is approaching.”

On a regional basis compared to the previous month, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 42.2 per cent lower in the Northeast, 25.9 per cent lower in the Midwest, 7.3 per cent higher in the South and 5.5 per cent higher in the West.

Overall permits increased 0.1 per cent to a 1.34 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits decreased 1.8 per cent to a 718,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits increased 2.5 per cent to an annualized 621,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data compared to the previous month, permits were 7.8 per cent lower in the Northeast, 1.7 per cent higher in the Midwest, 3.0 per cent higher in the South and 4.6 per cent lower in the West.